Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 31,031
2 Florida 28,191
3 Arizona 27,380
4 Mississippi 26,613
5 Alabama 23,911
6 Georgia 22,780
7 New York 22,386
8 South Carolina 22,042
9 New Jersey 21,599
10 Nevada 21,594
11 Texas 21,152
12 Tennessee 20,866
13 Rhode Island 20,174
14 District of Columbia 19,389
15 Arkansas 19,011
16 Massachusetts 18,341
17 Iowa 18,258
18 Illinois 17,820
19 Maryland 17,459
20 Delaware 17,419
21 California 17,268
22 Idaho 17,149
23 Nebraska 16,738
24 Utah 15,555
25 North Carolina 15,082
26 Connecticut 14,596
27 Oklahoma 13,690
28 Indiana 13,436
29 Virginia 13,430
30 North Dakota 13,428
31 Kansas 13,417
32 Wisconsin 13,130
33 South Dakota 13,005
34 Missouri 12,733
35 Minnesota 12,545
36 New Mexico 11,701
37 Michigan 10,888
38 Pennsylvania 10,529
39 Kentucky 10,474
40 Ohio 9,966
41 Washington 9,801
42 Colorado 9,754
43 Puerto Rico 9,618
44 Alaska 7,683
45 Wyoming 6,278
46 Montana 6,221
47 Oregon 6,024
48 New Hampshire 5,258
49 West Virginia 5,242
50 Hawaii 4,916
51 Maine 3,249
52 Vermont 2,519

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Mississippi 217
2 North Dakota 215
3 Georgia 190
4 Alabama 184
5 Kansas 176
6 Louisiana 171
7 Iowa 170
8 Texas 162
9 Idaho 156
10 Indiana 155
11 Tennessee 153
12 Missouri 149
13 Hawaii 147
14 Nevada 147
15 California 143
16 South Carolina 141
17 Illinois 140
18 South Dakota 139
19 North Carolina 134
20 Oklahoma 132
21 Arkansas 129
22 Florida 122
23 Puerto Rico 119
24 Kentucky 117
25 Rhode Island 110
26 Minnesota 108
27 Nebraska 103
28 Virginia 100
29 Wisconsin 98
30 Utah 95
31 Michigan 86
32 Maryland 83
33 Montana 80
34 Colorado 71
35 District of Columbia 70
36 Ohio 66
37 Arizona 63
38 Alaska 58
39 Washington 56
40 Oregon 55
41 Wyoming 52
42 Massachusetts 51
43 Connecticut 48
44 Delaware 45
45 Pennsylvania 42
46 West Virginia 39
47 New Mexico 37
48 New York 27
49 New Jersey 25
50 New Hampshire 14
51 Maine 12
52 Vermont 10

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,796
2 New York 1,670
3 Massachusetts 1,300
4 Connecticut 1,251
5 Louisiana 1,031
6 Rhode Island 980
7 District of Columbia 855
8 Mississippi 777
9 Michigan 669
10 Arizona 658
11 Illinois 643
12 Delaware 619
13 Maryland 613
14 Pennsylvania 598
15 Florida 492
16 South Carolina 491
17 Georgia 484
18 Indiana 481
19 Alabama 415
20 Texas 414
21 Nevada 399
22 New Mexico 357
23 Ohio 341
24 Colorado 335
25 Iowa 335
26 Minnesota 323
27 New Hampshire 315
28 California 314
29 Virginia 292
30 Washington 257
31 Missouri 252
32 North Carolina 248
33 Arkansas 235
34 Tennessee 235
35 Kentucky 205
36 Nebraska 199
37 Wisconsin 189
38 Oklahoma 188
39 North Dakota 186
40 Idaho 183
41 South Dakota 181
42 Kansas 148
43 Utah 124
44 Puerto Rico 123
45 West Virginia 104
46 Oregon 103
47 Maine 97
48 Vermont 92
49 Montana 90
50 Wyoming 63
51 Alaska 45
52 Hawaii 33

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 8
2 Louisiana 7
3 Georgia 5
4 Arkansas 4
5 Florida 4
6 Texas 4
7 Idaho 3
8 Nevada 3
9 Tennessee 3
10 California 2
11 Iowa 2
12 Montana 2
13 Rhode Island 2
14 South Carolina 2
15 West Virginia 2
16 Alabama 1
17 Alaska 1
18 Arizona 1
19 Delaware 1
20 Illinois 1
21 Indiana 1
22 Kentucky 1
23 Maryland 1
24 Massachusetts 1
25 Michigan 1
26 Minnesota 1
27 Missouri 1
28 New Mexico 1
29 North Carolina 1
30 North Dakota 1
31 Oklahoma 1
32 Oregon 1
33 Puerto Rico 1
34 Utah 1
35 Virginia 1
36 Colorado 0
37 Connecticut 0
38 District of Columbia 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Kansas 0
41 Maine 0
42 Nebraska 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 New Jersey 0
45 New York 0
46 Ohio 0
47 Pennsylvania 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 141,085 1 99
Lafayette Florida 138,209 2 99
Lake Tennessee 116,876 3 99
Lee Arkansas 112,115 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 106,265 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 36,569 153 95
Richland South Carolina 24,254 407 87
Orange California 14,687 972 69
York South Carolina 14,410 996 68
Pierce Washington 8,028 1771 43

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,400 5 99
Richland South Carolina 450 671 78
Davidson Tennessee 359 848 73
Orange California 287 1026 67
Pierce Washington 194 1341 57
York South Carolina 139 1597 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons